Costco Stock Is 14% Below Its Record. History Says Buyers…

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Past dips have mostly paid off

For all nine drops, the median return a year after the stock first stood 14% below its record was around 21%, and the best, in 2021, was about 58%.

The two exceptions both came in 2022. A year after the stock’s January and May drops, s were down around 1% and 3%, respectively.

And it wasn’t because the company stumbled. In fiscal 2022, which ended Aug. 28, 2022, Costco’s comparable sales excluding gas and currency climbed around 11%, and its earnings per grew about 17%. The stock fell anyway. In other words, its price-to-earnings ratio shrank.

It’s worth noting that the record before 2010 is weaker. From 2000 through 2009, seven drops this big left the stock higher a year later just twice, in a stretch that included the dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis.

Did September stop the slowdown?

Costco’s September report covered the five weeks ending Oct. 4, 2026, which started its fiscal 2027. Net sales climbed 13% year over year to around $30 billion.

But the number I most closely is comparable sales excluding gas and currency. It covers sales at warehouses and online businesses operating for over a year and removes swings in fuel prices and exchange rates, giving a clearer idea of how much more members are buying. That measure rose 7.6% in September, its fastest rate since May’s 8% gain. In between, it slowed every month, slipping to 5.4% in August after 7% in June and 6.6% in July.

Some of the pickup comes from Labor Day, which was a week later than in 2025. Costco said the timing added a bit over 0.5 percentage points to September’s comparable sales, after costing August a little less than 0.75 points. But even with both months adjusted for the holiday, the underlying rate rose from around 6% to about 7%.

The U.S. business did even better, with adjusted comparable sales up 8% in September against 5.6% in August. And the U.S. rise came on top of 5% adjusted growth in September 2025, so this wasn’t just an easy comparison.

In my Oct. 4 piece, I wrote a September result around 7% might mean the slowdown had leveled off. It beat that.

Today’s price looks more 2022

Costco’s earnings per grew 14% in fiscal 2026 (ended Aug. 30, 2026) to $20.76. At roughly $942, s cost about 45 times those earnings.

The starting valuation differed a lot among those nine past drops, and it seems to have mattered. Based on the previous fiscal year’s earnings per , the six drops that began under 40 times earnings were all ed by gains a year later, running from about 19% to 58%. The three that started over 40 times earnings (the two in 2022 and one in 2025) saw one gain of about 14% and two small losses.

Costco Wholesale Stock Quote

NASDAQ: COST

Costco Wholesale

Premium Feature

Moneyball Superscore

83/100

Today’s Change

(-0.10%) $-1.00

Current Price

$946.92

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$420BMarket cap calculated using publicly traded s outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded s. Implied market cap may vary.

Day’s Range

$942.53 – $951.29

52wk Range

$844.06 – $1096.50

Volume

1.5M

Avg Vol

2.1M

Gross Margin

12.82%

Dividend Yield

0.59%

Sure, nine drops is a small sample, so I wouldn’t read too much into that split. But today’s price-to-earnings ratio of around 45 looks far more the 2022 starting points, at about 43 and 46 times earnings, than the cheaper ones before them.

The sales slowdown I worried about a week ago reversed in September, which makes the case for the business stronger. The stock’s valuation, though, is around where it was.

In the end, I think Costco’s track record after big drops and its improving sales trend make the stock worth a look today. But because s still cost around 45 times earnings, I’d buy gradually over the coming months rather than all at once. And I wouldn’t count on a gain as big as the ones that ed the cheaper drops.