The Iran War Could Trigger A Global Food Crisis
While media coverage of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has focused on oil prices, the implications for global food supplies are no less alarming. A prolonged closure could disrupt agriculture worldwide and place more than 100 million people at risk of a humanitarian catastrophe.
Supplying the Gulf under a blockade would therefore require an unprecedented humanitarian operation, possibly through contested airspace. For comparison, the United Nations World Food Programme delivered an average of just 15 million pounds of food per day to 81 million people in 71 countries in 2024.
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A full blockade would hurt Iran just as much as its Arab neighbors. Disruptions to maritime trade would squeeze the country from both ends, restricting energy exports while driving up the cost of imported staples such as wheat, rice, animal feed, and vegetable oil. For many Iranians, basic necessities, from bread to rent, have already become unaffordable, fueling the mass protests that swept the country earlier this year.
Historically, food-price spikes and shortages have been major drivers of political instability. In 2008, rising energy and fertilizer costs, combined with extreme weather and persistent policy failures, nearly doubled the price of staple crops, sparking food riots in dozens of countries. A few years later, in 2010 and 2011, a historic drought and heatwave in Russia slashed grain harvests and pushed the global food prices to record highs, setting the stage for the Arab Spring.
More recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drove up global grain, fertilizer, and fuel prices, contributing to a sharp rise in food insecurity. With the global food system under growing strain from climate shocks and the lingering effects of the pandemic, it is hardly surprising that the world faces the largest surge in violent conflicts since the end of World War II.
The impact of further disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would extend far beyond the Gulf. Farmers around the world, from South Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa – and even in Europe and the United States – depend on stable supplies of fertilizer and fuel. Natural gas is a key ingredient in nitrogen fertilizer, a cornerstone of modern agriculture that has helped crop yields reach historic highs. An estimated 30-40% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizers pass through the strait.
When fertilizer and fuel become more expensive, farmers adjust by applying less fertilizer or planting fewer acres. As a result, yields decline, and the effects ripple through the entire food system. From farmers and truckers to food processors, the supply chain passes along higher costs until they reach households’ grocery bills.
While disruptions to food, fuel, and fertilizer shipments could drive up prices within weeks or months, another resource could be at risk within days: water. If the conflict contaminates the Gulf’s waters or disables desalination plants, the consequences would be catastrophic.
The risk is already acute. Last week, both Bahrain and Iran – which is itself experiencing severe water shortages – reported that desalination plants had been attacked. If deliberate, such strikes would be considered war crimes under international law, as destroying or contaminating these facilities would immediately threaten millions of lives. While Ukraine has demonstrated that critical infrastructure can be repaired under fire, desalination systems are highly complex, and there are few quick alternatives.
For decades, international security efforts in the Middle East have focused on preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Yet the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, whether through sea mines or sustained military conflict, could inflict civilian harm on a similar scale by disrupting global food and energy systems, as well as triggering a regional water crisis. All parties to the conflict, along with the broader international community, must do everything possible to prevent such an outcome.
At the same time, this episode should serve as a warning: the global food system is dangerously vulnerable. Policymakers must act to shore it up before the next shock pushes millions more people toward a humanitarian cliff.
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