Tesla Stock Sits Nearly 30% Below Its High And Still Trad…
The multiple was never ordinary
Measured against the $1.08 per Tesla went on to earn in 2025, the stock’s December peak near $499 was priced above 460 times earnings. Today’s 330 times earnings is lower. But cheaper than 460 times earnings is not the same thing as cheap.
The deeper problem is that earnings have fallen in each of the past two years. Tesla earned $4.30 per in 2023, its most profitable year on record. That fell to $2.04 in 2024 and $1.08 in 2025. And the trailing-12-month figure still sits at $1.08 today.
Tesla’s recent reports, the latest of which arrived on July 22, explain why. Tesla’s operating margin has stepped down from 5.8% in the third quarter of 2025 to 5.7%, then 4.2%, then 1.4% in the second quarter of 2026 (down from 4.1% in the year-ago quarter). Driving the decline, operating expenses jumped 47% year over year, and gross margin slipped to 16.8% from 17.2%.
Notably, even the latest quarter’s bottom line got help: net income included an unrealized pre-tax gain of about $1 billion on Tesla’s investment in SpaceX, worth about $0.22 per after tax.
In short, the price fell, but the earnings underneath it never grew. That’s why a 29% decline still leaves the stock at a valuation multiple most large companies never touch.
What would make 330 times ordinary?
For Tesla to trade at 30 times earnings at today’s price, it would need to earn about $11.80 per annually. That’s about 11 times its current trailing earnings — and close to three times its best year ever.
Looking forward doesn’t close the gap much. Based on consensus estimates, s cost about 160 times next year’s expected earnings.
However, the time element matters, too. Reaching $11.80 in earnings per within a decade would require compounding profits at about 27% a year, every year, from a base that has shrunk in each of the past two years. It may happen. But that is the scale of what today’s price assumes.
The business the price is betting on
To be fair, parts of the business are moving in the right direction. Second-quarter revenue rose 26% year over year to $28.2 billion, and vehicle deliveries grew 25%. Services and other revenue jumped 50% to $4.6 billion, and the energy storage business grew 13%.
The software side is growing quickly, too. Active subscriptions to the company’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software reached 1.48 million, up 56% year over year. And the Robotaxi service has kept expanding, with the purpose-built Cybercab beginning production during the quarter.
The costs are arriving first, though. Capital expenditures reached $5.8 billion in the second quarter, up 142% year over year, and free cash flow swung to negative $1.1 billion. With more than $40 billion in cash and investments, Tesla can afford the push. But the spending hits free cash flow before any new profits do, and it ly will for a while.
Expand
NASDAQ: TSLA
Tesla
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
71/100
Today’s Change
(2.60%) $8.99
Current Price
$354.81
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.4TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded s outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded s. Implied market cap may vary.
Day’s Range
$345.45 – $355.74
52wk Range
$297.38 – $498.83
Volume
81.5K
Avg Vol
41.3M
Gross Margin
18.85%
Tesla itself describes this as its “largest and most exciting period of investment,” and management says it expects “an acceleration of AI, software and fleet-based profits” over time.
Maybe that acceleration comes. The delivery and software numbers show a business with plenty of demand, and CEO Elon Musk has typically spent ahead of the opportunity. But an 11-fold profit increase isn’t something anyone can responsibly forecast from a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow.
So, has the decline made the stock cheaper? Only against its own past price. On the earnings the company produces today (or has produced in any year of its history), Tesla remains arguably one of the most expensive large-cap stocks in the market. Yes, the business is making progress on cars, software, and robotaxis. But the profits that could support this valuation multiple haven’t shown up yet.
I’d stay on the sidelines at this price.
Read Next
•By Bram Berkowitz
•By Lee Samaha
Optimus Just Entered Production at Fremont. Here’s What Changes for Tesla Investors.
•By Robert Izquierdo
Ford Motor vs. Tesla: Analyzing Revenue Trends Between These Automotive Giants
•By Matt DiLallo
Can You Invest in The Boring Company? Details and Alternatives to Consider
•By Ryan Vanzo
Tesla Announces Semi Event for Sept. 24. Here’s What Investors Need to Know.
•By Ryan Vanzo
About the Author
Daniel Sparks is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering technology, industrials, financials, and consumer goods. Daniel is the owner and chief investment officer of Sparks Capital Management. He holds a master’s degree in business administration from Colorado State University. The Globe and Mail profiled him and his investing philosophy in an article titled, “This stock picker is outperforming nearly everybody else. Here’s how he is doing it.”
Stocks Mentioned
Tesla
NASDAQ: TSLA
$354.81
(+2.60%)+$8.99
Motley Fool Stock Advisor’s Latest Pick
—% Avg Return
*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.
Sumber Artikel:
Fool.com