Spacex's Next Starship Launch Will Generate Revenue …
Image source: SpaceX.
What’s different about Flight 14?
The fact that Starship (both the name of the launch system and of the rocketship’s second stage, which is designed to carry either cargo or passengers) will complete an orbit (actually, six of them) is the first big difference about this mission. SpaceX also notes that it has made certain hardware modifications to improve engine performance and software changes to enhance relight reliability. The company has also tweaked some of Starship’s protective heat shield tiles to improve their performance.
But another change to this flight could be even more important to investors in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +0.44%) stock.
SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen calls Tuesday’s flight Starship’s first commercial, non-demonstration mission, with plans to place 26 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. Starship is currently the only launch vehicle large enough to carry SpaceX’s Starlink V3 satellites, each of which is rated for 1 terabyte per second of download transmission — 10x the downlink capacity of the company’s V2 mini satellites. (Space analysts estimate the V3 satellite has a mass of nearly two tons — three times the size of a V2 mini — so 3x the mass for 10x the performance.)
Johnsen further argues that Flight 14 will be Starship’s first “revenue-generating flight.”
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NASDAQ: SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies
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How Starship generates revenue for SpaceX
This statement is a bit more controversial than it sounds. As I explained back in June, SpaceX post-IPO (initial public offering) is a complicated beast, comprising three separate but interconnected businesses:
- Space (rocketships and rocket launches).
- Connectivity (Starlink internet broadband satellites).
- and AI (artificial intelligence).
Now, you might think that when the company’s Space segment launches Starlink satellites for the Connectivity business — as will happen on Flight 14 — SpaceX would have the former bill the latter for the service, such that Space recognizes revenue from Connectivity paying for the launch.
But SpaceX itself says that’s not the case.
Referring to the company’s own IPO Prospectus:
For launches of our Starlink satellites, the Company does not recognize any inter-segment revenue, rather those launch costs are capitalized in satellites in Property, plant, and equipment, net. We allocate a significant amount of launch capacity to our Connectivity segment, and expect to allocate a significant amount to our AI segment in the future. Our Space segment revenue only reflects our customer launches and customer activities.
Furthermore:
For launches dedicated to deploying our Starlink satellites, we capitalize the associated costs within our Connectivity segment and depreciate them over time, and we do not recognize revenue for those launches in our Space segment.
Let me emphasize that last point: This means that “Space is getting zero revenue from launches it performs for Connectivity.”
What this means for investors
So how does this fit with the CFO’s assertion that Starship Flight 14 will be “revenue-generating”?
There are a couple of possible answers. One might be that the CFO simply misspoke — that SpaceX is still capitalizing Starlink launch costs, and Connectivity will not, in fact, credit Space with revenue for this flight.
Or Johnsen might have said something technically incorrect but true in a broader sense. Carrying Starlink V3 satellites to orbit won’t directly generate revenue for SpaceX, but down the line, as the satellites are put in service, Starlink subscribers will pay to use them — and that’s revenue for the company.
A third possibility is that Johnsen inadvertently hinted that SpaceX is changing its accounting policy and will begin tracking “inter-segment revenue” between Connectivity and Space going forward.
Last but not least (and most intriguing) is the possibility that Starlinks aren’t the only payload going up on Starship Flight 14. There may be other cargo on the rocket from a customer other than SpaceX, which is paying part of the launch cost and generating revenue from the launch.
Which answer is the right one? I honestly don’t know — but I’m eager to watch the launch tomorrow and find out.
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About the Author
Rich Smith is a contributing Motley Fool defense and stock market analyst covering publicly traded and emerging companies in defense, space, aerospace, and other sectors. Prior to The Motley Fool, Rich practiced international corporate law for Clifford Chance in Russia, and for the Russian-Ukrainian Legal Group in Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington, D.C. He holds a bachelor’s degree in international relations from the College of William & Mary, a law degree from the University of Baltimore, and a language certification from the International Institute of Russian Language & Culture in Tver, Russian Federation. The Globe and Mail once featured him as “one of the best stock pickers since 2009.”
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