Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (ai) Stock Will …
Does SpaceX deserve to be bigger than Meta?
The first question investors need to ask is whether SpaceX logically deserves to be bigger than Meta. I think the answer to that question is a resounding “no.”
First, let’s look at what each company is doing right now. During Q2 2026, Meta Platforms’ revenue totaled $60.8 billion, rising 28% year over year. It had rising expenses, which caused net income to shrink 14% year over year, but it still posted an impressive $15.8 billion profit. Those are figures you’d expect from a company valued at over $1 trillion, but it’s nowhere near what SpaceX is producing.
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NASDAQ: META
Meta Platforms
Today’s Change
(1.66%) $9.12
Current Price
$559.02
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.4TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded s outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded s. Implied market cap may vary.
Day’s Range
$546.30 – $561.42
52wk Range
$520.26 – $790.80
Volume
13M
Avg Vol
18.5M
Gross Margin
81.75%
Dividend Yield
0.38%
From a growth standpoint, SpaceX is beating Meta, with revenue rising 92% year over year. However, its revenue only totaled $7.8 billion, and it produced no net income to speak of. That’s right: SpaceX’s revenue is less than half of Meta’s net income, yet SpaceX has a higher valuation.
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NASDAQ: SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies
Today’s Change
(-1.44%) $-1.97
Current Price
$135.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.9TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded s outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded s. Implied market cap may vary.
Day’s Range
$133.10 – $138.33
52wk Range
$104.83 – $225.64
Volume
60.2M
Avg Vol
122.1M
That doesn’t make a lot of sense logically, even if SpaceX is growing at a rapid pace. Because of these mismatched figures, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Meta end 2026 at a higher valuation than SpaceX, and it could occur in two ways.
Meta is cheap while SpaceX is expensive
By the end of 2026, Meta will be bigger than SpaceX through one of two mechanisms. First, Meta Platforms could rise to have a reasonable valuation. Right now, Meta trades for 17.5 times forward earnings. For reference, the S&P 500 trades for 21.4 times forward earnings.
META PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts
That’s a very low price, indicating that Meta is trading at the cheaper end of its usual valuation range. Some of its valuation woes are due to lackluster performance, but with Meta still growing rapidly and profits only falling due to the acquisition of major (AI) talent, I think this is just too low a price to pay for Meta’s stock.
I think trading at a market-average valuation is more reasonable. If Meta could rise to 21.4 times forward earnings, that would represent a 22% rise (at the time of this writing), bringing Meta’s market cap to $1.7 trillion, roughly where SpaceX is now.
However, by the end of 2026, I’d expect SpaceX’s valuation to come down as well.
The SpaceX market is constantly being flooded with new s as various lockup periods end. This increases the supply of stock available to trade, which could dilute demand enough that prices sink. Furthermore, SpaceX is valued at an incredibly high level. Because we don’t have 12 months’ worth of results from SpaceX, valuing it on trailing results is impossible. If I utilize Wall Street analysts’ projections, they estimate SpaceX will generate $44.6 billion in revenue during 2026. At today’s current market cap, that prices SpaceX stock at nearly 40 times sales.
That’s a very expensive price for any stock, even SpaceX. I think that figure will come down by the end of the year and potentially leave SpaceX as a trillion-dollar company, but only barely.
Meta Platforms is a viable business that generates serious profits, while SpaceX is a company that only has plans to do so. I think this will lead to Meta overtaking SpaceX in valuation by the end of the year, making now a better time to invest.
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About the Author
Keithen Drury is a contributing Motley Fool technology analyst covering AI, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and SaaS stocks. In addition to The Motley Fool, Keithen is a mechanical engineer and has held roles at Honeywell and smaller industrial companies Brand Hydraulics and Lincoln Industries. He holds a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from Dordt University.
Stocks Mentioned
Meta Platforms
NASDAQ: META
$559.02
(+1.66%)+$9.12
Motley Fool Stock Advisor’s Latest Pick
—% Avg Return
Space Exploration Technologies
NASDAQ: SPCX
$135.00
(-1.44%)-$1.97
*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.
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