Nvidia's Latest Signal Points To Serious Downside Ri…
NASDAQ: MU
Micron Technology
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
92/100
Today’s Change
(-0.22%) $-2.15
Current Price
$975.26
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.1TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded s outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded s. Implied market cap may vary.
Day’s Range
$967.38 – $993.99
52wk Range
$154.65 – $1255.00
Volume
21.7M
Avg Vol
41M
Gross Margin
72.60%
Dividend Yield
0.05%
The Nvidia signal that matters more for Micron
What I find harder to dismiss is what Nvidia is doing with its designs, because design choices lock in years ahead of purchase orders.
Consider the Rubin CPX, a chip built for the first stage of answering an AI prompt, when the system reads everything you fed it before writing a word. Nvidia’s original plan used GDDR7, the same memory category used in gaming graphics cards. It costs about one-fifth as much per gigabyte as the premium stacked memory that drives Micron’s profits, and it skips the expensive packaging step.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in August that Nvidia revived the project with stacked memory instead, though at 168 gigabytes per chip rather than the 288 gigabytes per chip in the flagship part.
Image source: Getty Images.
That all sounded a bit technical, but read that sequence as a company testing how little premium memory it can get away with in the parts of the workload that do not need it. Nvidia has every reason to keep trying. In other words, the bigger thing to watch is how Nvidia designs its chips because those decisions can affect Micron for years (or even permanently).
Nvidia originally planned to use cheaper memory in Rubin CPX. Still, if it keeps choosing more expensive stacked memory, that’s a good sign for Micron, as Nvidia would continue to need its high-end memory.
Expand
NASDAQ: NVDA
Nvidia
Premium Feature
Moneyball Superscore
94/100
Today’s Change
(-0.03%) $-0.07
Current Price
$218.29
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$5.3TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded s outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded s. Implied market cap may vary.
Day’s Range
$218.15 – $222.00
52wk Range
$164.27 – $236.54
Volume
89.1M
Avg Vol
131.8M
Gross Margin
74.67%
Dividend Yield
0.24%
Why Micron’s own expansion adds to the risk
Here is where it gets uncomfortable for Micron holders: The company plans to double its monthly output of stacked memory to roughly 100,000 wafers by the end of this year. Meanwhile, its of that market slipped to 18% in the second quarter, while Samsung Electronics doubled to 33%, according to research firm Counterpoint Research. Samsung reached its first billion dollars of stacked memory revenue within four months of starting shipments.
So Micron is adding a great deal of capacity to a market where it might be losing its position. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed in June 2026 that the company had approved all three major memory makers, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, to supply HBM4 memory for its next-generation Vera Rubin platform.
This is either good or bad, depending on your posture as an investor. It keeps Micron in the game and hands Nvidia three sellers to compete against each other.
Expand
NASDAQ: SKHY
SK Hynix
Today’s Change
(0.94%) $1.77
Current Price
$190.07
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.4TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded s outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded s. Implied market cap may vary.
Day’s Range
$187.00 – $192.94
52wk Range
$124.80 – $199.87
Volume
14.9M
Avg Vol
32.1M
Gross Margin
75.63%
What does all this mean for Nvidia and Micron?
For Nvidia, the direction is favorable. Three qualified suppliers competing for its business is a cost advantage, and its memory bill is enormous. In my opinion, Nvidia is in a stronger position because it can design its chips around whatever memory makes the most economic sense and use three (or more) qualified suppliers to keep costs and supply in check.
For Micron, the near term still looks strong. Management guided that tight supply conditions persist beyond calendar 2027, and SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung has said the shortage could run through 2030.
The risk is what happens when Micron’s new capacity arrives at the same moment Nvidia’s designs need less premium memory per chip, and its commitment schedule thins out. I would not short this. I would stop treating $1,000 as a floor.
If you hold Micron and it has become an outsize part of your portfolio, trimming back toward your intended weight is reasonable. Watch two things: Micron’s of stacked memory in each quarterly update and whether Nvidia extends commitments into fiscal 2030. It seems far away now, but keep your eyes peeled.
Read Next
•By Anthony Di Pizio
Will Micron Technology Stock Soar to $1,500 After Sept. 30?
•By Sara Appino
Broadcom vs. Micron Technology: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
•By Dave Kovaleski
Where Will Micron Be in 10 Years?
•By Trevor Jennewine
Is Micron Stock the Next Nvidia? The Answer May Shock Investors.
•By Brendan Coffey
Applied Materials vs. Micron Technology: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
•By Keith Noonan
Stocks Mentioned
Micron Technology
NASDAQ: MU
$975.26
(-0.22%)-$2.15
Motley Fool Stock Advisor’s Latest Pick
—% Avg Return
Nvidia
NASDAQ: NVDA
$218.29
(-0.03%)-$0.07
Samsung Electronics
OTC: SSNLF
$139.76
(0.00%)-
SK Hynix
NASDAQ: SKHY
$190.07
(+0.94%)+$1.77
*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.
Sumber Artikel:
Fool.com