Ev Sales Are "cratering." Here's Why I&#03…

Oleh Patinko • April 12, 2026

By Chris Neiger – Apr 11, 2026 at 9:05PM EST

Key Points

EV sales in the U.S. fell 28% in the first quarter.
However, Rivian is a stronger automaker than it was just a couple of years ago.
Its new, cheaper R2 lineup could set the company up for success.

Still, I’m not selling my Rivian s just yet.

Image source: Rivian.

The great EV transition that never was

Electric vehicles are the future. I still believe that. But they feel a little more distant than they did just a few years ago.

The government tax credits that helped spur EV sales are now extinct, and the EPA has made moves to cut emissions standards — both of which give automakers far fewer incentives to invest in new electric models.

That’s not the only problem, though. Years of tariff uncertainty, geopolitical instability, rising material costs, and inflation all worked together to drag down enthusiasm for EVs for both consumers and automakers.

The results are showing up in EV sales now. Cox Automotive recently estimated that electric vehicle sales plunged 28% in the first quarter. The Wall Street Journal reported that sales are “cratering” and that an EV rust belt is developing in some states.

So much for the electrified future.

And yet, EV-first companies may still have an opportunity in this beaten-down market. I think some, Rivian, may be in a better position than ever, actually.

NASDAQ: RIVN

Rivian Automotive

Today’s Change

(1.25%) $0.19

Current Price

$15.43

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$19B

Day’s Range

$15.30 – $15.87

52wk Range

$10.85 – $22.69

Volume

484K

Avg Vol

29M

Gross Margin

-276.59%

Why Rivian can still succeed in a slow EV environment

I’ve been tempted to sell my Rivian s. I haven’t lost money, but I haven’t made much either. Admittedly, it’s a rather small position too, so I’m not worried about needing to reallocate the money to other investments.

But the real reason I keep holding Rivian is that I think the company is better off than it was a few years ago, even amid the difficult EV environment, and is positioning itself for more growth.

Let’s consider what’s going well for Rivian at the moment:

Rivian’s revenue rose 8% to $5.4 billion in 2025.
The company’s net losses narrowed to $3.6 billion in 2025, better than its loss of $4.7 billion in 2024.
It retooled its internal vehicle components in 2024, reducing the automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle by $31,000.
Rivian has received a $2 billion investment from Volkswagen through a new technology joint venture, which could be worth up to $5.8 billion.

Does all this guarantee Rivian will succeed? Certainly not. And there’ve been plenty of setbacks along the way, too. But all of this shows significant progress nonetheless, and it’s proof that the company is in better shape than it was just a couple of years ago.

And then there’s the company’s new R2 lineup, which will set Rivian’s trajectory for the next several years.

Rivian launched its newest model last month, and deliveries are scheduled for later this year. The first iterations will cost about $58,000, which is more expensive than the sub-$50,000 vehicle many have been waiting for, but still far cheaper than the $70,000-plus vehicles it sells now. And two R2 versions that cost less than $50,000 are expected to go on sale next year.

The average new car costs about $49,200. When Rivian’s cheapest R2 goes on sale for about the same price as a gas-powered vehicle, buyers won’t need tax credits or other incentives to make their decision. At that point, the best vehicle will win over buyers because it’s what they want, not just because it’s an EV.

Rivian’s third vehicle will benefit from economies of scale that didn’t exist before. It will also benefit from Rivian retooling its internal components to thousands of dollars per vehicle just a few years ago, and it’ll benefit from having already shifted suppliers and material sourcing when tariffs were at their worst.

In short, Rivian is in better shape than ever, and it offers more and cheaper vehicles than before. Succeeding in the EV market will be difficult, to be sure, but Rivian has made the right adjustments along the way to play the long game — and I’m here for it.

Ev Sales Are "cratering." Here's Why I&#03…

Key Points

The great EV transition that never was

NASDAQ: RIVN

Key Data Points

Why Rivian can still succeed in a slow EV environment

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