Amazon Stock Has Pulled Back In 2026. Is This A Buy-the-d…
By Daniel Sparks – Mar 10, 2026 at 8:48PM EST
Key Points
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Amazon stock has noticeably underperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2026.
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The retail and cloud-computing giant’s operating cash flow is surging.
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The company plans to invest approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026.
Cloud-driven momentum
Despite its already massive size, Amazon continues to grow by double-digit rates. Its fourth-quarter net sales rose 14% year over year to $213.4 billion.
Capturing a key part of Amazon‘s growth story, its cloud computing business, AWS, is seeing accelerating momentum. Its fourth-quarter revenue growth rate of 24% year over year was up from 20% in the third quarter. For a business segment with more than $140 billion in annual run rate revenue, this is exceptional growth.
Amazon’s profitability also moved materially higher during the period. The tech giant reported fourth-quarter operating income of $25.0 billion, up from $21.2 billion a year earlier. And management noted that this figure would have been $27.4 billion without three special charges recorded in the quarter.
Looking past the free cash flow decline
Despite this strength, one figure in the report looked quite concerning at first glance: Amazon’s free cash flow declined sharply year over year.
For the trailing 12 months, Amazon’s free cash flow fell to $11.2 billion from $38.2 billion. The decline, Amazon said, was driven primarily by a $50.7 billion year-over-year increase in capital expenditures, net of proceeds from sales and incentives, reflecting massive investments in AI.
But this is where investors need to look closely at the underlying business mechanics. While free cash flow is temporarily suppressed due to this investment cycle, the cash generated by Amazon’s actual operations (before capital expenditures) remains incredibly strong.
Trailing-12-month operating cash flow actually rose 20% year over year to an incredible $139.5 billion.
This massive operating cash flow figure is arguably a much better way to evaluate the company’s current performance than free cash flow, as long as investors believe the company will earn a good return on its invested capital, because the difference between operating cash flow and free cash flow is what the company sees as an attractive investment opportunity. Amazon has stumbled onto a massive growth opportunity in AI, and it is using its robust cash generation to fund a large-scale build-out.
In fact, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy noted in the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call that, as fast as it installs this AI capacity, it is monetizing it, reinforcing the case for investing heavily across Amazon. And he even explicitly stated that he expects attractive returns on invested capital.
“We have deep experience understanding demand signals in the AWS business and then turning that capacity into strong return on invested capital,” Jassy explained. “We are confident this will be the case here as well.”
Is it time to buy the dip in Amazon stock?
So, with impressive business momentum and exceptional long-term growth opportunities, is Amazon stock a buy today?
I believe it is. Given the stock’s recent pullback, s look attractively priced relative to the company’s immense operating cash flow.
The stock’s current price-to-earnings ratio is about 30, which looks sensibly priced given the underlying financials and the 24% growth rate in its highly profitable AWS segment. But more importantly, valuing the business based on its ability to generate $139.5 billion in trailing-12-month operating cash flow highlights the sheer scale of the profit engine funding this next wave of expansion.
Key risks, of course, are that Amazon’s capital expenditures remain elevated longer than expected and that the return on this spending falls short of management’s expectations.
But after the stock’s recent 17% decline from its 52-week high, I believe these risks are largely priced in.
For investors willing to look through the near-term capital expenditure noise and focus on the company’s long-term earnings power, this dip looks a great opportunity to buy s.
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About the Author
Daniel Sparks is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering technology, industrials, financials, and consumer goods. Daniel is the owner and chief investment officer of Sparks Capital Management. He holds a master’s degree in business administration from Colorado State University. The Globe and Mail profiled him and his investing philosophy in an article titled, “This stock picker is outperforming nearly everybody else. Here’s how he is doing it.”
Stocks Mentioned
Amazon
NASDAQ: AMZN
$214.29
(+0.38%)+$0.80
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