▲ S&P 500 +—%|▲ Stock Advisor +—%Join The Motley Fool
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Starlink needs to hold $66 a month
Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, had 12.0 million subscribers at the end of June, twice the year-ago total. But each pays less. Starlink’s average revenue per user (ARPU) was $66 a month in the second quarter, flat with the first quarter but down from $85 a year before. According to SpaceX’s quarterly report, the fall came mainly from international expansion and cheaper service plans.
In May, Starlink lifted prices for most U.S. residential and Roam plans by $5 to $10 a month, with current customers paying the higher rates on or after June 18. So the third quarter is the first full one at the new prices.
But management didn’t promise the average would climb.
“While our geographic expansion may drive down blended ARPU over time, we anticipate continued subscriber momentum to deliver strong revenue growth,” chief financial officer Bret Johnsen said on SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings call.
I’d watch for both: ARPU at $66 or more, and net additions around the record 1.7 million from the second quarter. If ARPU dips again even with U.S. prices higher, each new subscriber is arguably worth less than the headline total suggests.
2. Anthropic’s first full quarter
In the second quarter, revenue from AI solutions and infrastructure (mainly Grok and X subscriptions plus rented-out data center capacity) leaped to $2.2 billion. This compared with $475 million three months earlier and $311 million a year before. Cloud services, which SpaceX just began offering that quarter, made up $1.6 billion of it.
These deals were just getting started, though. Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, agreed in May to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June at a lower fee. At the full rate, that one customer could make up around $3.75 billion of quarterly revenue — over double what all of SpaceX’s cloud services took in during the second quarter.
Google, owned by Alphabet, begins paying its full $920 million a month in October. And if SpaceX missed a Sept. 30 deadline to deliver the promised hardware, Google can cancel or pay less after a one-month grace period.
Sure, Cursor, the AI coding company SpaceX finished buying on Aug. 14, will probably add to the broader AI line too. So the bar I’d set is cloud services revenue of around $3.75 billion or more, plus word that Google’s hardware came on time.
3. Is Falcon flying more often again?
SpaceX’s space segment pulled in just $962 million in the second quarter. But launch cadence (how often the company flies) helps determine how much capacity Starlink can sell. After all, 27 of SpaceX’s 37 Falcon launches in the second quarter carried its own payloads.
The tally of 37 compared with 40 in the first quarter and 45 a year before. It also lagged SpaceX’s 2025 rate of 165 Falcon launches, or around 41 a quarter.
“We’re currently launching at our highest Falcon cadence,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s president and chief operating officer, said on the August call.
Expand
NASDAQ: SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies
Today’s Change
(7.36%) $10.89
Current Price
$158.96
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$2.0TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded s outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded s. Implied market cap may vary.
Day’s Range
$149.34 – $159.84
52wk Range
$104.83 – $225.64
Volume
119.9M
Avg Vol
91.9M
The third-quarter total will show if that held, and I’d want to see Falcon back over 41. Starship also flew twice in the third quarter, versus once in the second. Its Sept. 28 flight reached orbit and deployed 26 next-generation Starlink satellites.
The AI number matters most
Of the three, I think the AI figure carries the most weight. SpaceX spent $23.6 billion on AI capital expenditures in the first half of 2026, compared with $3.3 billion a year before. A full quarter of Anthropic’s fee is the first true test of whether that spending becomes revenue on time.
Yes, a strong report could clear all three bars. But at a valuation of about $2 trillion, investors are already paying for most of this to work out, and SpaceX still lost $541 million in the second quarter. I’d want to see the AI number before paying around $152 a .
Read Next
•By Rich Smith
Here’s How SpaceX d $120 Million With (and Without) a Really Big Fishnet
•By Johnny Rice
SpaceX Just Launched 3 Rockets in 13 Hours. Here’s What Investors Need to Know Right Now.
•By Keithen Drury
Better AI Stock: SpaceX or Palantir?
•By Rich Smith
Why SpaceX Stock Popped on Friday
•By Keithen Drury
Here’s How Fast SpaceX Must Grow to Be a $5 Trillion Company by 2030
•By Geoffrey Seiler
3 Numbers Every SpaceX Investors Should Know
About the Author
Daniel Sparks is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering technology, industrials, financials, and consumer goods. Daniel is the owner and chief investment officer of Sparks Capital Management. He holds a master’s degree in business administration from Colorado State University. The Globe and Mail profiled him and his investing philosophy in an article titled, “This stock picker is outperforming nearly everybody else. Here’s how he is doing it.”
Stocks Mentioned
Space Exploration Technologies
NASDAQ: SPCX
$158.96
(+7.36%)+$10.89
Motley Fool Stock Advisor’s Latest Pick
—% Avg Return
*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.
Premium Investing Services
Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool’s premium services.
Sumber Artikel:
Fool.com
